top of page
“ The Paradise within the reach of all men ”
The Fourth Frontier
'An indefinite steady state that will feel to people like they live in a period of perpetual growth, but will abide by the laws of physics and game theory that govern our universe'. The Fourth Frontier is an 'engineered stable abundance'. It succeeds and obsoletes the previous three (unsustainable) frontiers of resource-expansion: geographic (colonisation), transfer (conquest), and technological (capability).
Heterodox Economics
Infinite Economic Growth ('Embedded Growth Obligations'): this concept refers to the structural necessity within modern financial and political systems for continuous economic expansion to prevent collapse. "Embedded Growth Obligations" (EGOs) are liabilities—such as pension funds, national debts, and social safety nets—that are mathematically predicated on the assumption that the future economy will be significantly larger than the present one. When growth slows or stops, these obligations cannot be met, turning valid promises into insolvencies. This creates a trap where society is forced to pursue growth at any ecological or social cost, simply to service the debts and promises made by previous generations.
Steady-State Post-scarcity Economy ('Engineered Stable Abundance'): this theoretical economic model seeks to decouple human welfare from material throughput. In a steady-state economy, the goal shifts from economic expansion to maintaining a constant stock of physical wealth (population and capital) at a sustainable level, with the lowest possible rate of "throughput" (depletion of resources). "Engineered stable abundance" implies a system that uses advanced technology and design to ensure all basic needs are met without the requirement for perpetual growth, effectively eliminating resource-scarcity and avoiding ecological overshoot simultaneously.
The Four Frontiers
The First Frontier (Geographic): The geographic frontier represents the most basic form of expansion: the physical movement of a population into new, unexploited territories. Historically, this has been the primary engine of human growth, where "times of plenty" were achieved by discovering and colonizing land masses that possessed untapped resources (timber, minerals, arable land). This phase is characterized by extensive growth—expanding the map—rather than intensive growth, and it is inherently limited by the finite surface area of the planet.
The Second Frontier (Transfer): The transfer frontier (often described as a zero-sum frontier) occurs when growth is achieved not by creating new value or finding new land, but by taking resources from others. This is the domain of conquest, colonialism, and systemic extraction, where one population or group experiences a boom by appropriating the assets, labor, or future stability of another. Unlike technological or geographic frontiers which can appear positive-sum, the transfer frontier is strictly about shifting existing wealth, often disguised as economic growth by the victor.
The Third Frontier (Technological): The technological frontier represents the "intensification" of resource use through innovation and efficiency. Rather than finding more land, this frontier involves discovering ways to extract more utility from the same amount of matter and energy. This includes advancements like agriculture, industrialization, and the digital revolution. While it allows for growth within fixed geographic limits, it faces thermodynamic boundaries and often introduces complex, systemic risks (such as pollution or nuclear proliferation) alongside its benefits.
The Fourth Frontier (Engineered Stable Abundance): The fourth frontier is not a physical space or a technological breakthrough, but a necessary transition to a "steady-state" existence defined by system-wide equilibrium. This frontier involves the engineering of a stable abundance representing a collective economic and psychological shift towards long-term societal and ecological sustainability
History of Post-scarcity Thought
The Paradise within Reach of All Men (Eltzer): J.A. Etzler’s 1833 treatise, The Paradise within the Reach of all Men, without Labour, by Powers of Nature and Machinery, is a seminal work of techno-utopianism. Etzler argued that humanity was surrounded by immense, untapped natural forces—wind, tides, waves, and sunshine—that, if harnessed by large-scale machinery, could perform all necessary physical labor. His vision was that of an automated, post-scarcity society where technology would liberate humanity from toil, allowing for a life of leisure and abundance, a precursor to modern theories of fully automated luxury communism or post-scarcity abundance.
Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren (Keynes): In this seminal 1930 essay, John Maynard Keynes predicted that technological progress and capital accumulation would solve the "economic problem"—the struggle for subsistence—within a century. He foresaw a future where the standard of living rose so high that humanity would work only 15-hour weeks, shifting the species' primary challenge from survival to the wise cultivation of leisure and culture. It serves as the foundational economic prophecy for a post-scarcity era, arguing that greed and usury are temporary vices necessary only until abundance is achieved.
Engines of Creation (Drexler): K. Eric Drexler’s 1986 manifesto introduced the concept of molecular nanotechnology—the engineering of functional systems at the atomic scale. It outlines a future where "assemblers" can arrange atoms to construct virtually any material object at near-zero cost (the cost of raw materials and information), effectively ending material scarcity. This technological capability serves as the physical infrastructure for the Fourth Frontier, transforming the "limits to growth" into a landscape of infinite material possibility (and existential risk).
bottom of page