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“ If we act wisely in the next few centuries, humanity will survive its most dangerous and decisive period ”
The Hinge of History (hypothesis)
According to the hinge of history hypothesis, the 21st century is the most influential period in world-history: the decisions that are made now will set in motion civilisation’s trajectory over the long-term future. We exist at a critical point in time in which the future is underdetermined and there is a radically open possibility space for agents of history to navigate, ranging from utopias (cosmic posthumanism) to dystopias (global stable totalitarianism) and oblivion (human extinction). Those alive today will determine the fate of all future generations.
A conceptual engineering by Derek Parfit in On What Matters
Philosophers of (The Hinge of) History
Hinge of History (Parfit): Derek Parfit framed the Hinge of History as the period when humanity's actions possess the maximum long-term moral significance. He argued that since the existence and quality of countless future lives depend entirely on the decisions made by people alive today, our ethical obligations are unprecedented. It is the moment we transition from a species that primarily affects the present to one that determines the permanent trajectory of the cosmos's future.
Hinge of History (Ord & MacAskill): In the Effective Altruism and Longtermism frameworks, the Hinge of History is a bottleneck period marked by high existential risk. Figures like Toby Ord and William MacAskill emphasize that current generations hold a disproportionate moral weight because we must first navigate the period of maximum danger (existential risk from unaligned AI, bioweapons, etc.). If we survive this pivotal era, the future will become immensely long and secure; if we fail, the potential of humanity is permanently destroyed.
Time of Perils (Sagan & Ord): Carl Sagan originally termed this the "time of maximum danger," referring to the Cold War era where nuclear proliferation made humanity capable of self-destruction. Toby Ord revived this as the Time of Perils, defining it as the entire period during which humanity has acquired catastrophic, world-ending power (the "Twin Nuclei" and beyond) but has not yet developed the sufficient wisdom or stable global institutions to manage it safely. It represents the finite, high-risk window we must exit before existential risk declines.
The Most Important Century (Karnofsky): This term, popularized by Holden Karnofsky, specifically focuses on the profound implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It posits that the century during which AGI is developed and deployed will determine the long-run fate of civilization, as this technology could usher in a permanent, stable utopia or dystopia, or lead to extinction. The immense, irreversible leverage of AGI makes the period of its creation disproportionately impactful.
Alternative Conceptualisations
Time inbetween Worlds (Stein): Drawing from the work of philosopher Zak Stein, this concept characterizes the present as a unique world-historical transformation—the breakdown of the industrial-age system and the yet-to-be-determined emergence of a successor society. Stein emphasizes that this transition is fundamentally a crisis of education and capacity, arguing that humanity faces a "learning and capacity deficit" relative to the complexity of the global problems we've created. This "time between worlds" is a critical, potent moment that requires a comprehensive, intentional redesign of all systems, particularly education, to cultivate the necessary collective intelligence and moral maturity for survival
Time inbetween Worlds (Roderick): Drawing from Roderick’s analysis of Nietzsche's "Death of God," this concept describes the profound cultural and philosophical interregnum humanity currently occupies. It is a period where the foundational structures of meaning (metaphysical, moral, and epistemological certainties) provided by the "old world" (e.g., God, absolute truth, stable social roles) have collapsed, yet a viable, shared horizon of meaning for the "new world" has not yet been established. This creates a state of radical disorientation, marked by both existential dread at the loss of certainty and the exhilarating, prophetic possibility of creating entirely new values.
Time inbetween Worlds (Gramsci): Drawing on Antonio Gramsci's prison writings, this concept describes a moment of profound political crisis where the ruling social order (the "old world") is dying, but the political forces capable of building the new order (the "new world") have not yet fully emerged. Crucially, in this "interregnum," a great variety of morbid symptoms appear, such as political instability, ideological extremism, and the rise of authoritarian figures.
The Great Turning (Macy): A sociological and ecological term from deep ecology activist Joanna Macy, The Great Turning is a necessary, fundamental shift in human consciousness and civilization. It describes the massive transition from the current industrial growth society (which she calls the "Industrial Growth Society") to a life-sustaining society. It is a sustained, collective project spanning centuries, encompassing the shift from a mechanistic worldview to one based on ecological interdependence.
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